InsightsWeekly Chart Note

Charting the Course

The Bull, the Bear, and the Barrel: NVIDIA's chart sits at a decision point as the bull case, bear case, and oil outlook compete.

September 14, 20263 min read

Chart of the Week

NVDA: Momentum vs. Mean Reversion

Friday's Charting the Course carried the theme 'The Bull, the Bear, and the Barrel,' and we tried something new to match. With the market this binary, we split the tape: Dillon argued the bull case, Mike argued the bear case, and the barrel of oil got a starring role in both. The honest scorecard is that the evidence remains about even. Compressed tech multiples and historic earnings revisions on one side. Rates, oil, and a momentum unwind on the other.

Daily NVIDIA stock chart from spring through September 2026, showing anchored VWAPs, mean reversion reference levels, and key inflection points as the price tests its prior highs.
NVIDIA Corporation, daily, with anchored VWAPs and mean reversion reference levels. Source: Significance Capital Management. Data as of September 2026.

Our chart of the week cuts through all of it. Wars, yields, AI spend, credit default swaps, you can track a hundred things right now, or you can watch NVIDIA. It has been the fundamental engine of this bull market, and the chart sits at a decision point. Since June the stock has been in mean reversion mode, but the past week showed the first early signs of momentum trying to restart. A break above the old highs says the AI-led bull market is resuming. A failure says more chop and possibly momentum of mean reversion taking over. The wildcard is oil, which looks like the head of the snake for inflation. Nvidia's fundamentals can keep improving, but if rates get away from here it will be the defining valuation compressor for stocks. One chart, and it's telling us most of what we need to know.

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